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Sixteen days out, the markets have called the midterms

Prediction markets price Democrats at about 90 percent to take the House, the polls point the same way, and the president's approval sits at 35.1 percent. The unusual thing this close to election day is how little disagreement there is.

Washington, United States · October 18, 2026

Everything is on the ballot on November 3: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with Republicans holding both chambers today. Start with the money, because the money has stopped hedging. On Kalshi and Polymarket, the two big prediction markets, Democrats are priced at about 90 percent to win the House and Republicans at 10 percent, and Kalshi traders have put a seat count on it: around 231 Democratic seats.

The Senate is the live race. Democrats sit at about 62 percent there, and a full sweep of both chambers is priced above 60 percent. The polling underneath tells the same story. ActiVote's latest generic ballot survey puts Democrats ahead by 6.6 points, the widest lead that pollster has recorded this cycle, and the RealClearPolling average has the margin at nearly eight points. When traders and pollsters agree this closely, the race usually has a clear shape and only a narrow set of ways left to surprise.

The Cook Political Report projects Democratic gains of 9 to 19 House seats, with 21 districts rated toss-ups. Every figure here is what the markets and pollsters say, not a prediction of our own. Both have been wrong before, and there is still time for the picture to move. But right now, unusually, they are not disagreeing with each other.