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Alberta answers, and it is not close: three in four choose Canada

The province that was asked whether to start walking out of Canada voted by a landslide to stay, handing Mark Carney the decisive result he campaigned for and leaving the separatist movement beaten, but measured at one voter in four.

Downtown Edmonton across the Walterdale Bridge, in the province that voted on Monday to remain part of Canada. File photo.
File photo: Downtown Edmonton across the Walterdale Bridge, in the province that voted on Monday to remain part of Canada. File photo. Photo: Chris Woodrich, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

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The count was barely a third done when CBC News called it on Monday night, because there was nothing left to count that could change the answer. With most voting areas reporting in the unofficial tally, 1,329,176 Albertans had voted to remain a province of Canada and 424,110 had voted to start the legal process toward a binding separation referendum: 75.8 percent against 24.2 percent. A question that was sold as a moment of national danger ended as one of the most emphatic verdicts in Canadian referendum history.

The turnout told its own story about how seriously the province took it. Elections Alberta counted 1,356,873 advance and special ballots before election day, which is 43.1 percent of the 3,148,343 eligible voters, far above the early voting share of the last provincial election. More than 100 polling stations had to extend their hours on Monday to handle the lines. Mark Carney had asked Albertans to turn out like the country's future depended on it. On the evidence of the queues, they believed him.

The winners were gracious and pointed in roughly equal measure. Carney said Albertans had made a clear choice: "They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other. Canada is greater than the sum of its parts." He promised that Albertans and all Canadians would move forward together "with renewed purpose and high ambition." Thomas Lukaszuk of the Forever Canadian movement aimed his line at Washington, saying the result tells Donald Trump that "Canada is not up for grabs." Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi kept it shorter: "We saved Canada. Now, we save Alberta."

Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote under pressure from her party's separatist wing while campaigning to remain herself, said she was very pleased with the widespread support for staying, and she will address the province on Tuesday evening on where Alberta goes from here. She has reason to be pleased and reason to be careful in the same result. The other nine questions on her ballot, covering immigration and provincial powers, produced a split verdict, several settled by a point or two, including narrow backing for abolishing the Senate and for provincial laws taking priority. Albertans rejected the exit and kept most of the grievances.

Set Monday against the last time Canada asked a province this kind of question and the scale sharpens. Quebec in 1995 voted against secession by a razor thin margin that haunted the country for a generation. Alberta has now answered by three to one, in a campaign where separatist leaders met members of the Trump administration and, according to Globe and Mail reporting cited by CNN, Republican operatives helped the independence bid. None of it moved the province. The movement goes home beaten, but with roughly a quarter of the vote banked, which is a defeat and a constituency at the same time. Official results are due on October 29, and nothing in the remaining count will change who won. What changes now is the argument: the question is settled, and the fight over pipelines, equalisation and Ottawa's reach goes back to being politics instead of an exit door.

75.8%: the unofficial remain share in Alberta's referendum, against 24.2% for starting the separation process

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