A point that lifts Forest out of the bottom three, and still feels like two dropped

Forest climbed out of the relegation zone on Friday night without winning, which is both the good news and the whole problem. Neco Williams, marking his 150th Premier League appearance, put them ahead after 13 minutes at Portman Road, finishing from Daniel Munoz's assist. Julio Enciso levelled for Ipswich Town four minutes before half time, after an error by Nikola Milenkovic, and 1-1 is where a match Forest controlled for long stretches stubbornly stayed.

Controlled is not a courtesy word here. Forest produced 17 shots to Ipswich's 7, an expected goals figure above two, and a string of second half chances that Liam Delap and Callum Hudson-Odoi could not take, while Leif Davis cleared off the line twice for the hosts. Ipswich, who matched their entire previous Premier League campaign's home points tally with this draw, defended their box like a team that knows exactly where its points live. Forest played like a team that knows where its points should live, and keeps leaving them behind.

The grievance that will run all weekend came in the 51st minute. Issa Diop brought down James McAtee as he ran through on goal, referee Thomas Bramall initially waved play on, and after a VAR review at the monitor he showed Diop a yellow card, judging the denial of an obvious goalscoring opportunity worth no more. Forest manager Oliver Glasner called it a clear red card and the wrong decision, and his frustration had a second layer: he praised his side's reaction, spirit and patience in the same breath, which is a manager protecting a performance he believes in while the table still refuses to reward it.

The draw ends three straight league defeats for Forest and lifts them to 16th on goal difference, level on six points with four other clubs in a bottom half that has compressed into a single bad weekend. One win from eight games is the record that sits underneath the performances, and it is the record, not the expected goals, that decides May. Ipswich stay in the fight with them, a point banked at home against a side with better players, which in a relegation season counts as a good Friday.

Our call is that Forest's season turns on conversion, not on the Diop decision, however loud the weekend argument gets. A team creating 17 shots and two-plus expected goals away from home does not have a system problem. It has a finishing problem, and finishing problems at the bottom of the table are usually solved by one striker catching fire rather than by any tactical rebuild. If Delap's next five chances produce two goals, this draw reads as the night the climb started. If they produce none, Glasner will still be praising the spirit in December, from inside the bottom three, and patience will have run out long before the performances do.