5,000 dead, and this Ebola has no vaccine: Congo's outbreak is now its deadliest ever

The numbers crossed a line on Friday that Congo has never crossed before. Government data put deaths in the country's Ebola outbreak past 5,000, with infections above 10,000 across eight provinces since the outbreak was declared in May. It is the 17th Ebola outbreak in Congo's history and, the World Health Organization says, the largest the country has ever recorded. Only one Ebola epidemic anywhere has been bigger: West Africa's, a decade ago.

The strain is the core of the problem. This outbreak is driven by Bundibugyo, a rare species of the virus for which there is no approved vaccine and no approved treatment. The tools that changed Ebola response in recent years were built against the Zaire strain, and they cannot simply be taken off the shelf here. The outbreak also began in the country's east, amid conflict, hunger and displacement, in provinces that are hard for responders to reach, and the WHO notes that many deaths are happening in communities rather than inside treatment centres, which means the sickest people are being found late or not at all.

There are signs of a response gaining ground inside the grim totals. More than 2,600 people have recovered, testing and treatment capacity has expanded, and clinical trials are under way. The trial carrying the most hope is called Tumaini, the Swahili word for hope, running in Bunia and testing whether Ervebo, the vaccine licensed against the Zaire strain, offers any protection against Bundibugyo, given to the close contacts of confirmed patients. Two vaccines designed specifically for this strain are also working through evaluation.

The people running the continental response are not pretending this is under control. Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa CDC, told an emergency meeting of more than 40 African health ministers on Wednesday, in words reported by The National: 'We are not winning so far.' Cases have already appeared beyond Congo, in Kenya and Nigeria, which is what turns a national catastrophe into a regional one.

Our call is that the next decisive number is not a case count, it is a trial readout. Case counts will keep climbing past grim milestones for weeks whatever happens, because the response is chasing an outbreak across eight provinces with no strain specific tool. A Tumaini result, expected as early as December, either hands responders their first real weapon or confirms they must win this with tracing, isolation and trust alone, in places where all three are in short supply. Everything else in this story is scale. That readout is direction.